Michael Steele, Chairman of the Republican National Committee, when asked about the up coming Congressional elections explained that he was uncertain about a specific figure of seats that the Grand Old Party anticipates to pick up. This statement coupled with the recent news of the Republican Governors’ Associations high number of campaign contribution seems to indicate a shift in party focus from the federal to the state level.
Both national parties saw record off-year campaign contributions, with the Republican Governors’ Association reporting $30 million over the past year, while the Democratic Governors’ Association raised $23.1 million. Unlike federal campaign committees, the governors associations are not restricted by campaign finance limits on contributions from individual or corporate donors.
With Gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey, the Republican Party is already off to a strong start. Additionally, twenty-four out of the thirty-seven Gubernatorial races will also be up for grabs. Mr. Steele is right to focus his party’s attention on the state level as only some thirty or forty out of the four hundred thirty-five Congressional seats are said to be possible wins. Given this statistic, the GOP could see larger marginal gains on the local level if the base forgoes investment in the Congressional campaigns, as the Democrats would still maintain a majority in the House, even if the Republicans were able to pick up the maximum number of seats expected. This could present serious problems for a Democratic Congress that might seek to implement stronger federal policy if many states are controlled by Republican Governors.
The shift in focus by the GOP could certainly be a strategic investment with far reaching benefits. Training emerging Republicans in the Governorship could also help change the perception of the Republican Party on a national level by developing a new class of politicians with executive experience, statewide appeal, and bi-partisan competence in states that have traditionally been hostile to Republican candidates. In the short-term candidates for seats in the House and the Senate could see an electorate that is more receptive to Republicans, and in the long-run the GOP could also see the emergence of a strong, moderate, and electable candidate for the nation’s highest executive office. A search that has to date left the party without a clear 2012 nominee.
